The End of the World Is Just the Beginning PDF download

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning by Peter Zeihan PDF download

Details of The End of the World Is Just the Beginning Book

Book Name: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning
Authors: Peter Zeihan
Pages: 512
Genre: Business Planning & Forecasting
Publish Date: 14 June 2022
Language: English

Book Review:

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning this way for a long time it's not an aberration it's a pattern and without globalization most of the major economies in the world have to add a minimum retool and for many of them that's the end of their systems the other piece is depopulation we've finally passed

the point where the problem is no longer overpopulation the problem is that uh as globalization took hold everyone everywhere was able to move off the farm and into the town on the farm kids are free labor and in the town they're really expensive annoyances and adults aren't dumb

so they have fewer of them you carry that out for 75 years and you don't just run out of children you run out of 20-somethings and 40-somethings most of the major countries of the world have now aged past the point of no return and this was always going to be the decade where they moved into mass retirement you play these things two together

the whole system starts to spin apart the ukraine war is a piece of that countries looking to attach themselves to a superior power is a piece of that the evolution of china and japan and russia are pieces of that

the whole point of the book is to show what happens on the back side in terms of the major economic sectors whether it's transport or finance or agriculture oh it certainly does everyone assumes that trump since he was the one who threw the fits and broke trade deals is the one who's

the more populist and i don't mean to suggest that he wasn't he certainly was but what biden has done is fundamentally different trump would tweet out that we're pulling out of this or that or we're leveling tariffs on countries and then he would walk away sometimes he'd even fire the people

who were responsible for making those policies happen because he was a relatively volatile personality biden is coming in and biden is reinforcing every decision that trump made on trade with actual code with actual executive orders with with actual bureaucrats to enforce

it so biden and trump from a foreign economic policy point of view actually have the two most similar foreign policies in this country's history the difference is that biden is making it stick sure china tariffs the phase one deal um never really went through because trump never really implemented

it all the tariffs stayed in place and trump and his uh trade czar uh katherine thai have basically extended those into perpetuity uh and formed a bit of an alliance with some of the other western countries to make it not just an american thing but global and that's one of the reasons why companies like huyway are facing such a catastrophic problem everyone assumed that

as soon as the trump administration went away this would all just fade away and instead it is now i'm fully embracing the american trade law uh but yeah the whole book is on that topic so for example uh transport is international safe and cheap transport is the foundation of all manufacturing

supply chains the entire global energy market and the entire global agricultural market there are now parts of the black sea that have already become a no-go zone which have taken the world's largest wheat exporter russia and the fourth largest wheat exporter ukraine off the market uh the russians are having a similar problem with their fertilizer because it is exported through

that same no-go zone so we are already looking down the maw of a global wheat crisis that this year is going to at a minimum triple probably quadruple meat prices at the same time we have a global fertilizer shortage which is going to reduce yields on a global basis we're not going to have to wait 10 years

we're looking at that right now sure so as you move off the farm and into the city you have fewer kids you play that forward for a few decades and fewer kids becomes fewer young workers becomes fewer mature workers

i think a great case study is south korea south korea is a country that wasn't industrialized at all certainly wasn't globalized when it got independence from the japanese at the end of world war ii they started to develop in 1950 and steadily over the course of

the next four decades they went from the most rural country in the world to the most urbanized country in the world and they're now 30 years after that in an environment where they have more people in their 60s than their 50s than their 40s than their 30s than their teens and children for

a while that works for you because if you have a lot of workers aged 30 to 50 but not a lot of kids all the money that is normally spent on school and diapers is instead spent on cars and condos

you get this massive generation of economic growth from the consumption side at the same time the higher investment and tax levels from those more mature workers can be building out infrastructure and industrial plant on the industrial side and so we've seen this story over

over again in germany and korea and japan and china but it's a bit of a starvation diet because if you then fast forward another 10 years you're talking about that bulge that right

now is in the 50s being in their 60s and then retiring and in that sort of environment you just have a complete collapse of production and investment and consumption all at the same time and we're now looking at about half the developing world going through that process right

now so the growth we had from roughly 1995 to roughly 2015 the fastest economic expansion in human history was about all of them being in that magic demographic moment before they flipped now they're flipping

so as populations decline the capacity for them to participate in normal economic activity collapses because you have to have sufficient young people to get it going and that's no longer an option for a lot of countries

so the model of capitalism or socialism or fascism or communism or whichever ism you happen to be a fan of they were all designed for the market getting a little bit bigger every year and they can't cope with a market that's in terminal decline in terms of global affairs if you don't have safety

on the high seas and the us is the only country that can even pretend to guarantee that the steps that allow for modern manufacturing supply chains the complexity that brings us the goods that we use every day that breaks down in that sort of environment individual countries

will feel forced or out of a sense of opportunity to take matters into their own hands and try to generate regional manufacturing hubs regional spheres of influence the problem is that the resources you need to fuel a modern industrialized post-globalist world are not equally spread out around the world they're very concentrated so oil in the persian gulf cobalt in congo

nickel and northern russia for example not everyone can reach everything the united states should be pretty much okay because we're going to be combining the western hemisphere with maybe the japanese in southeast asia but for everyone else you're looking at sharply truncated capacity

to access the inputs that allow modern life to happen so we're seeing some of this going on right now with the ukraine war there are a number of countries who are completely reliant on globalization to allow them to import energy china is probably at the top of that list and in a world where russian crude is going offline bit by bit that means the entire map of where crude

can go is going to reshuffle so it's probably gonna look something like this as the russian crude falls offline the europeans who are the primary customer are going to go back and re-interface with countries closer to them that they have better relations with primarily former colonies that's north africa and west africa there's enough there plus norway to supply the europeans

but that means that russian crude is going offline and north and west african crude is going offline that means there's not enough left to go to east asia now the japanese have a navy they can reach the western hemisphere work with the americans still get supplies in but china can't china is a good example of a country that is absolutely screwed from this new sort of environment

they've mined most of their own country out and the resources that they need from further abroad are concentrating certain footprints that the chinese can't reach so china and a lot of countries in the broader world will not be able to access affordable and ample energy supplies to maintain their current system and they also can't reach the cobalt and the nickel

the copper that is needed to maybe try their hand at the green transition and that sort of environment you're not just looking at a trade breakdown in east asia you're in a population bust you're looking at a loss of the inputs that are necessary to maintain today's economy much less

the future one and that suggests a screaming reverse and economic activity and a de-industrialization of the system that doesn't simply make the chinese no longer rich it puts the chinese in an environment where they have to go back to subsistence rice paddy agriculture just to prevent their population from dying out some version of this is going to play out in large parts of the world

i'm specifically concerned with sub-saharan africa north and north north africa and the middle east a little bit in southeast asia i'm sorry a little bit in south asia and absolutely in central europe uh let's start with the demographic picture since we've already kind of established that the one child policy has been in place for 40 years and that means that the chinese are running out of 30 year

olds that's just how math works anyone who suggests that the chinese think long term or good at math really needs to take a closer look at their system also with the more recent census data that has come out they they

now admitting grudgingly that they've overcounted their population by in excess of a hundred million people now the chinese system as of two years ago before this new census data had come out they were already the fastest aging and fastest demographically collapsing country in human history and now with the new data

it suggests that the chinese population will be less than half of its current size as soon as 2050. so just from a demographic point of view this is the last decade of china as a unified nation state they're a dead man walking um let's go beyond that okay one belt one road this is a

an outcome of something the chinese do with their financial system so we give the fed a lot of crack a crap for uh monetizing and printing currency and all that good stuff and on average we we do print a substantial amount but the us dollar is used as the lubricant for the world's largest economy we have another 20 odd currencies in the wider world that are linked to

it and it is the sole currency for international trade and the primary currency in terms of store of value as such the american increase in the money supply actually broadly correlates with those other factors combined so do we play a little fast and loose with the rules sure will we pay for that down the road probably but the chinese which is not the chinese you want is

neither the store of value nor the currency of exchange and yet the chinese in any given month print two to five times as much currency as we do their overall money supply is over twice what ours is and it's not internationally exchanged at all they use that money to lubricate their systems to force capital into any company that might be able to employ people so for

us the money supply is primarily an economic issue for them it's a political one and it's treated appropriately and that means that the chinese are brimming with huge volumes of liquidity and if you're someone in the know in china and you have access to that it's a gold mine because

if you can get that currency out and exchange it for something else anything else even if the price is ridiculous that means you've gotten some capital flight out and you have your rainy day fund that's exactly what one belt one road is on a global basis whenever you see the chinese bidding eight billion dollars for something that's only worth two billion dollars that is not a sign of national

strength that is a sign of a corrupt bureaucrat who is establishing his nest egg and they've now done that on a global basis now there's lots of other impacts from this over financialization this hyper nationalization system but overall it does mean that each individual chinese company of size could not survive in the global environment

unless that money keeps coming other countries have tried various versions of this japan probably is at the top of that list they're the ones who kind of designed the model but eventually you have sufficient exposure that

you can't compete and you start going down a japanese style economic melees that in this case has lasted 30 35 years already and the chinese excuse me the japanese economy today is about the same size that

it was in 1994 before the decline really got going that is the best case scenario for the future of china a slow long stagnation but there's a lot of reasons to expect it to be a lot worse wow this is really fascinating.

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